Report: Countries with the Fastest Population Decline, 2025

Bulgaria is experiencing one of the fastest population declines in the world, mainly due to high death rates, low birth rates, and large numbers of people emigrating. The population is predicted to decrease by 22.5% from 6.9 million in 2020 to 5.4 million in 2050. Additionally, Bulgaria is struggling to keep its younger population as there are not enough job opportunities and living standards are dropping, contributing to the country’s declining population.

The population decline in Ukraine, as of early 2023, has been heavily influenced by the ongoing conflict in the eastern regions and the annexation of Crimea. These geopolitical issues have resulted in internal displacement and loss of life, directly impacting the country’s demographic statistics. Furthermore, Ukraine faces a significant public health challenge, with one of Europe’s highest rates of HIV/AIDS and related illnesses affecting its younger, reproductive-age population.

Likewise, Portugal’s population is projected to decline by 10.9% over the next three decades, from 10.2 million to 9.1 million. Portugal has taken steps to attract back and welcome new immigrants, regardless of their pay or skill level.

Population decline, also known as depopulation, refers to the gradual decrease in the number of people residing in a specific nation, town, or region over an extended period. This decline can be caused by various interrelated trends, including an aging population, high levels of emigration, low birth rates, fertility rates below the replacement level, high infant mortality rates due to inadequate healthcare systems, and elevated death rates caused by factors such as war, violence, disease outbreaks, and other catastrophic events.

The population decline has both positive and negative impacts on a nation. A shrinking population can result in more resources being available for each individual and increased per capita wealth. A diminishing population can help alleviate issues associated with overpopulation, such as heightened pollution, traffic congestion, soaring real estate and rent prices, and environmental degradation. However, population decline can lead to an aging population and a diminished workforce, impacting the overall quality of life, government-funded programs, and national GDP.

Analysts at CEOWORLD magazine and other reputable news media outlets have projected the countries expected to experience the largest percentage of population declines over the three decades (2020-2050). Eastern Europe tops the list, with many countries in the region projected to lose substantial portions of their population to emigration.

Over the past decade, eight countries with more than 10 million inhabitants have experienced a decline in their populations, with most of these countries being in Europe. The population decreases in Ukraine, Russia, Myanmar, Syria, Afghanistan, Palestine, Venezuela, Sudan, and Yemen can be attributed to war or conflict. Additionally, Italy, Portugal, Poland, Romania, and Greece have seen declining populations due to low fertility rates and significant emigration.

Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, and Greece have seen many people leave the country to live in other countries for job opportunities. As a result, Europe’s overall population is likely to start declining as early as this decade.

Outside of Europe, Japan is also facing a decline in its aging population due to a low fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman and low immigration, resulting in a loss of over 3 million people between 2011 and 2021.

Countries with the Fastest Population Decline 2020-2050

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