Choose Your Poison?

What if the most powerful salesman in the world was promoting a mixture of tariffs, tantrums, and tactical narcissism instead of philosophy, innovation, or democracy? A single, ridiculous question is being posed to the global marketplace in a time when planning passes for spontaneity and forethought is replaced by “X” storms: Which poison would you prefer to drink — mine or your own? Think BIG!

Welcome to the foreign policy bar owned and operated by Donald J. Trump, the President of the United States and self-described King of Chaos. The menu? A VUCA tasting platter: complexity on ice, ambiguity delivered neatly, and volatility with a hint of uncertainty. The invitation? Non-negotiable.

Trump’s negotiating style has always been more akin to Jackson Pollock than Michelangelo, with hints of unpredictability that appear to be strategy from a distance. However, a deeper inspection reveals a system based on self-thinking rather than systems thinking. Every action, including handshakes with North Korea and tariffs on China, is based on a single concept: if I can’t predict the future, I’ll provoke it. Syndrome: Make me HAPPY !

Hindsight, Insight, and Foresight — The Trifecta of Turbulence 

The elegance of the trifecta, hindsight for learning, insight for seeing, and foresight for preparing—is taught in traditional strategy schools. However, the Trump Doctrine redefines the order, if such coherence can be inferred. Foresight is outsourced (“We’ll see what happens”), insight is improvised (“I feel it in my gut”), and hindsight is weaponised (“I was always right”).

It’s leadership in a world where instant gratification is the norm, governance as reality TV, diplomacy as day trading. Reacting to the reaction before to the action could be referred to as a strange form of anticipatory mechanics. This is institutionalised instability, not brand-new chaos. America used to export dreams, but these days it exports problems. Like hesitant franchisees, the rest of the world must select their preferred level of uncertainty. Are you planning ot be a part of the American Dream? Think first, you might have to sell your Independence First!

The Global Bar Crawl of Bargains 

Europe: Once a partner, it is now a patron subject to ridicule and tariffs. NATO, that antiquated security blanket, has been questioned, humiliated, and then priced like a cocktail mixer. Brussels questions how “Pay America More, Again” evolved from “Make America Great Again.”

Russia: A relationship so intricate that even systems thinking is unable to explain it. Moscow is both the villain and the VIP visitor when it comes to sanctions and smiles. According to Trump’s diplomatic philosophy, inconsistency is a strength rather than a flaw.

China: A full-fledged trade war, matured in tariffs and served with decoupling rhetoric, is the poison here. Washington’s short-term impulse collides with Beijing’s long-term scenario planning. It’s patience vs property, Go versus Monopoly.

India: The friendship fluctuates between “Howdy Modi” hugs and Harley-Davidson headaches; it is courted, complimented, and then tariffed. The fastest-growing democracy in the world, India, is figuring out how to read the tea leaves of the me-centric strategy.

Middle East: A paradoxical marketplace. Iran is banned for life, Saudi Arabia is allowed to carry on with business as normal, and Israel is given the keys to Jerusalem. The dealmaker has a moral compass that rotates more quickly than a wind turbine.

Afghanistan and Pakistan: New uncertainties, old alliances. Here, the poison is administered in gradual doses: aid is withheld, then restored, then withheld once more. similar to a randomised diplomatic experiment.

Taiwan: The principle that was once a pawn. In a chess match, a symbolic act of “freedom” is played for media attention rather than results. Performative loyalty meets strategic uncertainty.

Latin America: Once America’s backyard, is currently being used as an anti-fragility test site. The networks that are intended to be blocked are strengthened by each wall that is constructed. According to Nassim Taleb, the area becomes anti-fragile, meaning that insults make it stronger.

Every area, every leader, every agreement—a tale in the making. A critical thinker would perceive risk as resilience, while a brilliant mind might find patterns in the chaos. However, the distinction between strategy and theatre is expertly blurred in the Trumpian playbook.

Fooled by Randomness, Fueled by Ego 

Trump’s internal logic or rather, lack thereofmust be appreciated in order to comprehend his global alchemy. Strategy in a conventional system balances means and aims. The message is the method, and the first person to clap is the end in Trump’s universe.

This is the diplomatic version of me-centric capitalism. Although it seems like a catchphrase, “America First” is actually a soliloquy. Nevertheless, despite all of its showmanship, the method occasionally results in unintentional genius. After all, stagnation might be disturbed by chaos. Recalibration may be necessary due to volatility. Ironically, some countries are learning more quickly because they can no longer rely on predictability.

The notion that chaos could become the new order could be the ultimate black swan..

The Great Game of Survival Strategy 

• CEOs and strategists who are smirking with recognition as they read this should not discount the metaphor too soon. Boardrooms follow the same rules as the Situation Room.
• Those who adapt are more successful in a VUCA world than those who make predictions.
• Institutions fail when they confuse size for strength, according to hindsight.
• Personality-driven systems inevitably collapse under their own weight, according to insight.
• Foresight alerts us to the fact that visibility-obsessed leadership frequently compromises vision.

Whether on purpose or not, Trump’s administration provides a real-world example of anti-fragility under pressure. Poked and provoked, the global system is becoming immune. Currencies disconnect, alliances reconsider, and supply chains diversify not because of strategy, but despite it.

The Aftertaste of Hegemony 

When the music ends, what’s left? A world that is a little less trusting, a little more independent, and considerably more conscious of the possibility that the barman behind the counter is putting something potent in everyone’s glass.

Once the creator of order, the United States today takes on the role of a cunning disruptor, the startup entrepreneur who destroys the system to demonstrate that it can be restored. The fact that everyone else has to clean up after the party is either the tragedy or the comic.

Nevertheless, the experiment has merit when viewed through a strategic perspective. It compels scenario planning from a crisis rather than a place of ease. It encourages critical thinking through conflict rather than agreement. It reminds us that, much like in life, leadership  — the poison is often indistinguishable from the cure until the morning after.

The Rhetorical Hangover 

Here we are, nursing the hangover of megalomaniacal charm and hegemonic ambition. Every country has its own remedy: America with its nostalgia, China with its lengthy games, India with its balancing act, and Europe with its restrictions.

Therefore, when the next king of chaos raises his glass and says, “Choose your poison,” will we have the foresight to decline or the hubris to think we can survive another round?

This question is deceptively straightforward but eerily relevant for strategists, policymakers, and CEOs worldwide. Do you have a Mackenna’s gold, keep it undercover, or else be Trumped.