Global CEO Confidence Index: December 2025 Results, Rankings & Key Signals

December 2025: A Confidence Index Defined by Caution, Not Collapse

By December 2025, global CEO confidence presents a nuanced picture: leaders are increasingly skeptical about macro conditions but remain strikingly confident in their own firms’ ability to grow, invest, and transform. Surveys conducted through late 2025 show confidence in the world economy at its lowest point in several years, even as a large majority of CEOs report strong optimism about their own organizations’ performance and sector outlook.​

This divergence—macro pessimism paired with micro confidence—is the defining feature of the December 2025 Global CEO Confidence Index. It shapes how boards are thinking about capital allocation, headcount, dealmaking, and technology bets heading into 2026.​

Macro Confidence Hits a Multi‑Year Low

The latest CEOWORLD magazine 2025 Global CEO Outlook shows confidence in the trajectory of the global economy dropping to about 65 percent, the lowest reading since 2021, and part of a multi‑year declining trend. Persistent geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes, and uneven growth have eroded optimism, with leaders citing macro uncertainty as a structural condition rather than a temporary shock.​

Regional data points to particularly weak sentiment in Europe, where surveys of major corporates highlight confidence near levels last seen during the 2022 energy crisis. In parallel, measures of US CEO confidence compiled by The Conference Board show readings below 50 in late 2025, signaling more negative than positive expectations for business conditions.​

Firm-Level Confidence Remains Surprisingly Strong

Against this backdrop, CEOs draw a much sharper line between the world and their own enterprises. CEOWORLD magazine’s global survey reports that close to four in five CEOs remain confident about their own company’s growth prospects over the next three years, and a similar share express optimism about their industry’s outlook.

At a more granular level, a majority of CEOs say they expect to increase headcount over the coming 12 months, even in markets where macro indicators and consumer confidence are softening. This suggests that leaders are treating turbulence as a transformation window rather than a reason to retreat, focusing on strategic hiring, upskilling, and capability building instead of blunt cost‑cutting.​

Regional Rankings: US, Europe, and Asia Diverge

Regionally, December 2025 confidence looks more like a mosaic than a single narrative. Surveys of European CEOs show particularly steep declines, with confidence in growth and operating conditions hit by energy uncertainty, industrial competitiveness concerns, and trade friction. In the US, measures compiled by The Conference Board indicate confidence slipping below neutral, even as earlier in 2025 some indices showed a temporary surge on the back of pro‑business policy expectations.​

Asian markets, by contrast, present a more balanced picture. EY‑Parthenon’s data shows relatively higher confidence scores in parts of Asia‑Pacific, with CEOs there more optimistic about growth but still wary of global stability and geopolitical risk. This regional divergence is reshaping how global groups think about capital allocation, with more emphasis on ring‑fencing European exposure and using the US and Asia as growth anchors.​

Sector Signals: Who Feels Strongest?

While confidence indices are primarily organized by geography, sectoral patterns are visible across surveys. Technology and AI‑driven businesses generally report strong optimism, supported by robust access to capital and clear demand for digital capabilities. Industrial and manufacturing CEOs show more cautious confidence, often tied to supply chain realignment, reshoring strategies, and the long tail of energy cost volatility.​

Financial services leaders report a mixed outlook: they benefit from higher rates and transactional activity in certain pockets, but they also face regulatory scrutiny, geopolitical risk exposure, and structural competition from fintech and private capital. In many of these sectors, confidence levels correlate less with headline GDP expectations and more with the perceived ability to execute transformation agendas.​

What Is Driving Confidence—And What Is Undermining It

Across major surveys, three drivers consistently support CEO confidence: investment in AI and advanced technology, talent strategies, and risk management capabilities. KPMG finds that roughly two‑thirds of CEOs plan to allocate between 10 and 20 percent of their capital budgets to AI over the next 12 months, making it a top investment priority. At the same time, more than three‑quarters cite workforce upskilling and competition for AI talent as critical challenges, underscoring the link between technology and human capital.​

On the risk side, leaders identify geopolitical fragmentation, regulatory complexity, and climate‑linked disruption as persistent headwinds, rather than one‑off shocks. Many now assume that geopolitical tensions will intensify, not recede, through 2026, which helps explain why confidence in the global economy continues to lag confidence in individual organizations.​

Boardroom Implications: Capital, Deals, and Headcount

For boards and investors, December 2025 confidence data carries clear implications. First, a majority of CEOs still plan to increase capital spending, particularly on technology, resilience, and selective growth initiatives, even in the face of weaker macro indicators. Second, there are signs of renewed appetite for megadeals and portfolio restructuring, with surveys indicating that six in ten global CEOs expect an uptick in large transactions as valuations reset.​

Third, hiring plans remain net positive, but much more targeted. While headline headcount may grow, a significant share of CEOs emphasize redeploying talent toward transformation, AI, and high‑margin segments. This shapes the risk calculus around wage bills, culture, and the long‑term competitiveness of the organization.​

How to Read the December 2025 Index as a Leader

For senior leaders, the December 2025 Global CEO Confidence Index is less a prediction than a map of sentiment and strategic posture. The key signals are: macro caution, micro conviction, major regional divergence, and a sustained pivot toward transformation rather than retrenchment. High confidence in firm‑level prospects suggests boards will continue to back disciplined risk‑taking, but the low confidence in the global economy argues for tighter scenario planning, contingency reserves, and flexible capital deployment.​

In practice, this means preparing for a world in which volatility is structural, not episodic. Executives who translate sentiment data into concrete actions—on portfolio composition, geographic exposure, workforce strategy, and balance sheet resilience—will be better positioned when the next shock hits.

Global CEO Confidence Index – December 2025 Key Metrics

For senior leaders, the December 2025 confidence picture is not a warning to halt investment—it is a directive to be more selective, more resilient, and more deliberate about where and how risk is taken.